Azerbaijan's Gas Pledge: A Promise Yet to Materialize?
Azerbaijan's energy sector is making headlines with a bold declaration, as the state-owned SOCAR announces natural gas sales to Austria and Germany. But a critical question looms: Can Azerbaijan deliver on its ambitious pledge to supply 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to the European Union?
President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, proudly stated that Azerbaijan now exports gas to 16 countries, 10 of them EU members. However, this announcement raises more questions than it answers. The original commitment, made in 2022, was to double gas exports to the EU within a few years, but the timeline has already been pushed back from the initial 2027 target.
The SOCAR deals with Austria and Germany lack transparency, leaving analysts wondering if Baku is genuinely increasing exports or merely reshuffling existing supplies. The company's silence on crucial details, such as the Austrian importer and the volume of imports, is concerning. This lack of transparency is becoming a trend, with a noticeable decline in energy news and data disclosure by both the Azerbaijani government and energy companies in the past year.
Azerbaijan's gas production data further complicates the picture. The latest figures show a mere 2.4% increase in annual gas production in 2025 compared to 2024, falling short of the growth rate required to significantly boost exports to Europe. In fact, Azerbaijani exports to the EU slightly decreased in 2025, casting doubt on Baku's ability to fulfill its commitments.
But here's where it gets controversial. The Shah Deniz field, operated by BP, is central to Azerbaijan's gas exports, yet BP has been tight-lipped about its production plans. Less than a year ago, they celebrated a new discovery, but specific production targets remain undisclosed. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies' Absheron field offers more clarity, with a planned second phase that could significantly increase production. However, the investment decision is still pending.
And this is the part most people miss. Despite the uncertainty, Baku has already promised a substantial portion of Absheron's future output to Turkey, further complicating the EU supply equation. The Southern Gas Corridor, comprising three pipelines, also lacks a clear expansion plan, which is essential to accommodate any additional exports to the EU. While the TAP pipeline expansion is a step in the right direction, it still falls short of its maximum potential.
The future of Azerbaijan's gas exports to Europe remains uncertain, with a lack of transparency and concrete plans. Will Baku be able to deliver on its promises, or will it be a case of overpromising and underdelivering? The energy world is watching, and the implications for Europe's energy security could be significant.
